How pricing really works in Lubbock

Pricing a home in Lubbock is the one seller decision the market answers immediately. Set it well and buyers take your home seriously in the first week. Set it on hope and the market replies with silence: fewer showings, weaker offers and a listing that gets stale.

I'm Shelby Cotton, a REALTOR® with eXp Realty, LLC in Lubbock, and I hold the NAR Pricing Strategy Advisor (PSA) certification. Here is how I actually approach the number, and why an online estimate rarely gets it right.

A price is only meaningful next to the other homes a buyer is looking at. So the first question is which homes those are. That changes across Lubbock.

In a newer neighborhood like Uptown West, a buyer can often choose between several homes of similar age and floor plan. Finish level, presentation and price separate them. In a neighborhood of 1970s and 1980s homes like Farrar Estates, recent sales include fully updated homes next to largely original ones. Averaging them produces a number that fits neither.

In a small market like Kings Park, very few homes sell in a typical year. There, each home is priced on its own evidence.

Recent sales are where the work begins, not where it ends. Two homes with the same square footage and bedroom count can be very different purchases. A few things a spreadsheet does not show:

• Layout. A floor plan that flows is worth more than one that forces you through a room to reach another.
• Lot and street. A home on a quiet interior street and one backing to a busy road are not the same home.
• The expensive parts. A roof or heating and cooling system near the end of its life is a cost the next owner will subtract.
• Records. Buyers pay for renovation they can trust. Dates, invoices and permits turn a claim into a fact.

Before real estate I worked in architecture, civil design and subdivision planning. I read a plan, a lot and a neighborhood's development pattern the way someone who designed them would, and that belongs in the price conversation.

High Plains soils ask more of a foundation than many buyers expect, and buyers' inspectors know it. If there is a question about foundation movement or how the lot drains, it is far better to learn that before we list than in the middle of a negotiation.

Then we choose a path. We can repair it, disclose it or price for it. Each is a legitimate choice. What costs sellers money is being surprised.

Once we know who the buyer is comparing you to, we decide where to sit against that competition. Then we plan for the market's reply. If showings are slow or offers come in low, what do we do, and when? Agreeing on that before you list keeps a change of plan from becoming a panic.

My job is to protect your equity. Sometimes that means showing you a number you'd rather not see, along with the evidence behind it. The decision stays yours. The full method is on how I sell a home.

Lubbock owners often carry three numbers in their heads, and they rarely match.

• A valuation estimates what buyers are likely to pay now. It is built for a decision about selling.
• An appraisal is ordered by a buyer's lender during a sale, to confirm the home supports the loan.
• The appraisal district's value is set for property taxes and is not a sale price.

A well-supported list price makes a smooth appraisal more likely. That is one more reason to price on evidence.

If you'd like to know where your home stands, my Lubbock home valuation begins with the homes buyers will actually compare it to. There is no cost and no obligation to list. You can also read selling a house in Lubbock, or tell me about your home. Move wisely.